Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 30 2023 08:54:45

ACUS48 KWNS 300854
SWOD48
SPC AC 300853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

....DISCUSSION...
On Tuesday/D4, and upper trough will be located over the Rockies,
with moderate south to southwest midlevel flow of 40-50 kt moving
into the Plains. Models vary regarding the timing and location of
embedded features, which decreases predictability. In addition, a
relatively narrow moisture and instability plume is forecast at this
time, and, areas of rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing
relatively early in the day. However, given ample deep-layer flow
and sufficient instability, at least isolated to scattered strong to
severe storms may affect parts of the area.

By Wednesday/D5, low-level moisture will have increased
substantially over the southern Plains, where moderate southwest
flow will persist. Potential will exist for widespread
thunderstorms, and this will have an impact on diurnal
destabilization. Much of TX will likely see dewpoints above 70 F by
this time, with this air mass possibly expanding north across OK.
Given possible weakening of the upper trough, and decelerating cold
front, heavy rain will be possible over these areas. See WPC
Excessive Rainfall products for more information.

Beyond this time frame, models indicate a possible large-scale upper
trough amplification across the Great Lakes, with high pressure
spreading south across much of the CONUS.

...Jewell.. 09/30/2023

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