Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 30 2023 05:09:45

ACUS02 KWNS 300509
SWODY2
SPC AC 300508

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of hail or gusty winds may develop late
Sunday over the northern High Plains.

....Synopsis...
An amplified pattern will exist on Sunday with an upper trough over
the Great Basin and a ridge from the MS Valley into the upper Great
Lakes. The western trough will make little eastward progress through
Monday morning, but gradually increasing southwesterlies aloft and
height falls will impact parts of the northern High Plains late.

Strong southwest winds and heating will result in steep lapse rates
and deep mixing layers from the Four Corners northeastward toward
the Black Hills, with deepening low pressure from eastern WY into
the western Dakotas. A cold front will push south across eastern MT,
western ND and northern WY during the late afternoon, while modest
moisture return occurs south of the wind shift.

....Northern High Plains...
Strong heating and 50s F dewpoints will likely yield MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg near the surface trough, with temperatures aloft will
not be particularly cool given the main trough will be far to the
west. Still, upslope flow into the higher terrain as well as
convergence near the trough/front should yield at least isolated
storms over much of WY during the day, then from eastern WY into the
western Dakotas through evening. Strong low-level wind fields out of
the south will aid warm air advection and convergence, possibly
supporting locally severe gusts or marginal hail.

...Jewell.. 09/30/2023

$$

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