Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2205
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 29 2023 22:14:44

ACUS11 KWNS 292214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292214=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-300015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern and central MN...far eastern
SD/northwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 292214Z - 300015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and or damaging wind gusts are possible with
scattered storms along a frontal zone this afternoon/evening. Storm
organization and coverage should remain below the need for a weather
watch.

DISCUSSION...Across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest,
scattered thunderstorms have slowly intensified along a frontal zone
across parts of southwest MN and far eastern SD. Along and south of
the front, surface temperatures in the 80s with dewpoints in the mid
60s were supporting 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, much of the
warm sector remains capped in the lower levels. So far, storm
development has been focused along and immediately north of the warm
front where overrunning and mid-level warm advection are supporting
1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE. While not overly large, the forcing along
the front, moderate buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km
will likely continue to support a few strong updrafts into this
evening. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts may favor some storm
organization into multicell clusters of elevated supercell
structures. Given the storm mode and potential for some organization
the primary risk will be for isolated hail and or damaging winds
with the strongest storms. Storm coverage and organization are
expected to remain relatively limited with the majority of storms
staying elevated along and north of the front. Thus, a weather watch
appears unlikely though convective trends will be monitored.

...Lyons/Hart.. 09/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!75hHGkGtFiCnbv2rpk1hbMrM10kLMKINJ0WywaQpWzZ9smQhnz2-1xnlVYTJlXskabV_JGn06=
Cd_8pMk4YeujamxeBE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   43979448 43649526 43029606 42839651 42889682 43069688
            43479679 43899673 44199666 45059631 45589512 45769399
            45639324 45329297 45129312 44639350 43979448=20


=3D =3D =3D
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