Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2204
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 29 2023 13:45:39

ACUS11 KWNS 291345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291345=20
MNZ000-291545-

Mesoscale Discussion 2204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0845 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northwest/north-central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 291345Z - 291545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong/damaging wind gusts remain
possible this morning with a fast-moving storm cluster.

DISCUSSION...A fast-moving storm cluster is propagating
northeastward across northwest MN this morning, in conjunction with
a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across North Dakota. While
this storm cluster is likely rooted somewhere in the 800-700 mb
layer (based on 12Z regional soundings), strong mid/upper-level flow
is supporting sufficient effective shear for storm organization, and
this elevated but relatively organized bowing cluster may persist
through the morning as it approaches north-central MN.=20

Uncertainty remains regarding the severe potential of this bowing
cluster with time. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and relatively steep
midlevel lapse rates will continue to support some hail potential
(with a recent golfball hail report noted in Clay County MN), though
the generally linear storm mode may mitigate this threat to some
extent. Generally cool and stable near-surface conditions will tend
to limit the severe-wind potential, though weak downstream diurnal
heating may support some potential for stronger gusts to reach the
surface. Given the current expectation for the severe threat to
remain rather isolated, watch issuance is considered unlikely.

...Dean/Grams.. 09/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_EFRNXRb8Kjq1mlfy3UUh09wLE05XoqjcfdG24RaFxM0PSwarzael-9CbtNBhoTWkQ44rObn1=
eZrMkdAVKLcK9SdVM8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   46969652 47079659 47519609 47979467 47959372 47419346
            46959360 46609416 46419481 46279539 46269581 46279613
            46309604 46639603 46969652=20


=3D =3D =3D
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