Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 29 2023 09:01:12

ACUS48 KWNS 290901
SWOD48
SPC AC 290859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An amplified western US trough is forecast to move eastward across
the Rockies and into the Plains during the Day4-6 (Mon-Wed) period,
with varying degrees of speed forecast by various models. The
greatest chance of at least low-end severe storms appears to be on
Day5 (Tue) as 40-50 kt southwest midlevel winds emerge into the
Plains, coincident with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from western TX
into western KS. Given the meridional nature of the upper trough,
the threat corridor could be relatively narrow. As such, trough
timing differences amongst the models will preclude adding a 15% as
placement error could be large. However, an area may be added in
later outlooks as predictability increases.

By Day 6 (Wed), the possibility of areas of ongoing rain and storms
reduces predictability further due to air mass concerns from
overturning and outflow. However, potential will still exist,
especially given ever increasing moisture quality from TX into OK.

On both days, the combination of increasing low-level moisture over
time beneath moderate southwest winds aloft will favor severe
storms, including supercells, and the evolution of the upper trough
will be monitored closely in upcoming outlooks.

...Jewell.. 09/29/2023

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