Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 29 2023 05:52:40

ACUS02 KWNS 290552
SWODY2
SPC AC 290550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storms appear unlikely on Saturday.

....Discussion...
An upper trough will amplify over West with height rises over much
of the Plains and MS Valley. South winds/mixing will occur over the
central Plains, with a warm front lifting north across NE, SD, IA
and into southern MN. While instability will develop in this region,
dry air aloft and minimal lift through 00Z should preclude
thunderstorm development except early in the morning across Upper MI
in association with a low-level jet/warm advection and weak shear.

Additional thunderstorms may occur overnight across ND and northern
MN as the low-level jet and associated elevated theta-e advection
becomes focused. Substantial elevated instability in a weak shear
environment may yield pulses of strong storms, and initial
development could potentially produce localized hail. At this time
the threat appears too conditional to introduce severe
probabilities.

...Jewell.. 09/29/2023

$$

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