Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 29 2023 07:31:40

ACUS03 KWNS 290731
SWODY3
SPC AC 290730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of hail may develop late Sunday over the
northern High Plains.

....Synopsis...
An amplified upper air pattern will exist on Sunday with a large
trough over the West and ridge over the MS Valley and Great Lakes.
This will trough will make little if any progress eastward, with
neutral height tendencies across the High Plains.

At the surface, low pressure exist over a broad region from the Four
Corners into the northern High Plains, while high pressure remains
entrenched over the MS/OH Valleys and Great Lakes. Given the surface
trajectories around this high, mainly 50s dewpoints will exist
across much of the Plains, with pockets of low 60s F into ND/MN/WI
where low-level mixing will not be as strong.

Thunderstorms on Sunday will most likely be focused over NM where
low-level moisture return will have an upslope component and where
heating will be strong. Midlevel lapse rates will not be
particularly steep for the area, but modest shear profiles and
veering winds with height could result in isolated strong storms,
perhaps producing hail.

Farther north, a better conditional risk of a few severe storms
producing hail will exist from eastern WY into the western Dakotas,
near or after 00Z. A low-level jet increasing to 40-50 kt after a
full day of heating is expected to yield isolated severe storms from
late afternoon through evening, and low probabilities have been
introduced.

...Jewell.. 09/29/2023

$$

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