Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 29 2023 00:59:08

ACUS01 KWNS 290059
SWODY1
SPC AC 290057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Potential for organized severe thunderstorms is expected to remain
low through tomorrow morning.

....Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is evident in water vapor imagery across the
Northwest into the northern Great Basin this evening. Lift
associated with this feature is also evident within parts of Wyoming
and Montana  as high level clouds have been increasing. This feature
should continue to spread eastward into the northern Plains through
the remainder of tonight into early tomorrow morning. Low-level warm
advection across a baroclinic zone within the northern Plains will
increase in response to the upper-level trough during the overnight.
The observed 00Z Aberdeen, SD sounding showed steep mid-level lapse
rates and potential for elevated buoyancy once low-level lifting
occurs. With that said, the environment would be supportive of small
to approaching-severe hail late tonight into tomorrow morning. Given
uncertainty in storm coverage and an otherwise marginal environment,
the probability of severe hail remains below 5%.

...Wendt.. 09/29/2023

$$

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