Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Sep 28 2023 19:36:38 ACUS01 KWNS 281936 SWODY1 SPC AC 281935 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ....20Z Update... Overall forecast reasoning remains unchanged, and the only change made to the previous outlook was expanding general thunder northwestward across Far West TX. A strong storm or two remains possible across western KY/TN this afternoon and evening, but generally weak shear and warm temperatures aloft should keep the overall severe potential low. Small hail also remain possible late tonight/early Friday from eastern SD into southwest MN. Marginal environmental conditions should keep the potential for severe hail low. ...Mosier.. 09/28/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023/ ....Kentucky/Tennessee... A relatively small cluster of thunderstorms continues to persist southeastward along the western Kentucky/Tennessee border vicinity late this morning. These storms, and the frontal zone just to the north, regionally reside on the southwest periphery of an upper low centered near Lower Michigan, within a cyclonically curved belt of moderately strong mid-level westerlies. The midday-ongoing storms do not appear likely to produce severe weather, although some strong storms could redevelop later this afternoon in the same general vicinity across western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. This will be as the synoptic front stalls or moves slightly southward, with outflows/differential heating on the western edge of persistent early day convection also factors. While a narrow zone of moderate instability will exist in this corridor later today, mid-level height rises are expected and effective shear should generally remain 30 kt or less. While a locally severe storm or two cannot be conclusively ruled out late this afternoon/early evening, the potential for organized/sustained storms is currently expected to remain low. ....Eastern SD/far southeast ND and southwest/south-central MN... Late tonight, low-level warm advection is expected to increase across the region, largely in response to an approaching shortwave trough. As a low-level jet strengthens into the region, elevated convection is expected to develop after midnight. Forecast soundings late tonight/early Friday suggest that some potentially strong elevated updrafts are plausible. Small hail could occur, but the potential for 1-inch (or greater) hailstones should remain low. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .