Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 28 2023 08:42:37

ACUS48 KWNS 280842
SWOD48
SPC AC 280841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A large upper trough will be centered over the Great Basin on
Sunday/D4, and is expected to move slightly eastward on Monday/D5
across the Rockies. This will result in increasing, meridional flow
aloft across the northern and central High Plains, with some models
hinting at an embedded speed max which could provide a focus for
lift mainly over the northern High Plains. However, present
indications are that instability will be marginal for any severe
storm threat, other than perhaps localized wind gusts or sporadic
hail

More widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected over the central
Plains and into the southern High Plains on Tuesday/D6 as the upper
trough continues to move east. By this time, and after several days
of southerly winds, better low-level moisture should be in place in
a plume from central into western TX and KS. This may eventually
become a Slight-Risk caliber setup, with modest instability and
shear perhaps supporting a supercell risk with large hail. Run to
run model trends will continue to be monitored for a more solidified
prognostication.

...Jewell.. 09/28/2023

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