Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 27 2023 19:51:05

ACUS01 KWNS 271950
SWODY1
SPC AC 271949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
lower Ohio Valley this afternoon into tonight, and pose some risk
for severe weather.

....20Z Update...

....Lower Ohio Valley...
Modest destabilization is still anticipated in the wake of early
showers and thunderstorms (and associated cloud cover) ahead of a
weakly convergence frontal zone. Thunderstorms are still expected
along this frontal zone later this evening. Cold mid-level
temperatures will foster moderate buoyancy amid generally weak to
moderate vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is
anticipated, but a supercell or two is possible as well.

...Mosier.. 09/27/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023/

....Lower Ohio Valley...
An upper low over the Midwest (temperatures still around -16C at 500
mb) will drift eastward over northern portions of Illinois/Indiana
and southern Lake Michigan through tonight, with moderately strong
cyclonically curved westerlies influencing the lower Ohio Valley
into Tennessee Valley. Moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE to
around 1000-1500 J/kg, is expected this afternoon near/south of the
synoptic front and weak surface low, particularly to the west of
decaying thunderstorm clusters and cloud cover that persist late
this morning near/south of the Ohio River.

Renewed thunderstorm development/intensification may occur across
east-central Kentucky Bluegrass into the Cumberland Plateau vicinity
by mid-afternoon. A couple of stronger cells may be accompanied by
small to marginally severe hail and localized damaging wind gusts,
before the storms spread into a more stable environment toward the
mountains.

Farther west/northwest is where somewhat more substantive
boundary-layer destabilization is expected across southern portions
of Illinois/Indiana into west-central Kentucky, with storms expected
to increase by late afternoon and early evening. A few transient
supercells could occur, but multicellular clusters capable of
hail/wind are otherwise probable, potentially including some
semi-organized clusters this evening.

$$

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