Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Sep 27 2023 07:19:58 ACUS03 KWNS 270719 SWODY3 SPC AC 270718 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered storms may produce hail over parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ....Synopsis and Discussion... Moderately strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from the Great Basin across the northern Rockies and into the Dakotas and MN on Friday with the primary upper trough well to the west over the Pacific NW. Within this southwest flow aloft, a leading disturbance is forecast to affect the Dakotas and MN during the day, moving quickly northeast into western Ontario by 00Z. At the surface, high pressure will extend southwestward out of New England, with this cooler air mass resulting in relatively stable conditions over much of the area east of the MS River. Meanwhile, a surface trough will deepen during the day from western KS and NE into southwest MN, with gusty south winds over the central Plains. This warming will lead to steepening low-level lapse rates in a plume extending northeast from the low, with the northern fringe of the warmer air interacting with the better shear environment from eastern NE and SD into MN. Present indications are that thunderstorms may form relatively early in the period from eastern SD into MN, mainly north of the surface trough where winds will be out of the northeast. This activity would likely be elevated, but may produce marginal hail. A greater chance of at least isolated severe hail would likely occur in the well-heated air from northeast NE into southeast SD/southwest MN. Here, forecast soundings show over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing, but perhaps just south of the stronger deep-layer shear which will be front-parallel. At least isolated late afternoon and evening storms are anticipated, with large hail being the primary risk. ...Jewell.. 09/27/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .