Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2201
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 26 2023 21:54:22

ACUS11 KWNS 262154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262153=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

Areas affected...Central New Mexico to far west Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 262153Z - 270000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across
central New Mexico to far west Texas will pose an isolated large
hail and severe wind risk through the early evening hours. Watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been well underway across
NM to far west TX, but recent GOES IR imagery and lightning trends
have shown an uptick in intensity in a few cells. While not
high-caliber by most measures, the environment across the region
remains favorable for organized convection with 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE and effective shear values near 20 knots. This may support a
few organized cells capable of posing a large hail risk. Dewpoint
depressions across the region on the order of 40-50 F indicate that
the boundary layer is fairly well mixed, and this is supported by
0-3 km lapse rates around 8-9 C/km per latest mesoanalysis
estimates. This low-level thermodynamic environment, combined with
PWAT values below 1 inch, is conducive for downbursts and perhaps
outrunning outflows that may lead to thunderstorm clustering. Both
of these scenarios would pose a risk for strong to severe gusts
through the early evening hours prior to sunset and on the onset of
nocturnal cooling. However, given the overall marginal convective
environment, watch issuance is not expected.

...Moore/Thompson.. 09/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8I15NEgajGDzNHXpsjzcBchwrlVnQX1hidfOA4jkj0Sn5yhxlXl9FPhtigGRg2wjxXsTk27VC=
9c-99-F6G_InDWfZN0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31650663 32360702 33580722 34160688 34670603 35090471
            35450313 35470262 35290194 35040178 34620188 33310240
            32470262 31650310 30750362 30390394 30120432 30040469
            30330507 30460516 30640531 31140613 31450647 31650663=20


=3D =3D =3D
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