Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 26 2023 08:45:17

ACUS48 KWNS 260845
SWOD48
SPC AC 260843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

....DISCUSSION...
For most of the day 4-8 period, an upper trough is forecast to
affect much of the western CONUS, making little progress eastward as
the trough becomes a large cut-off low over the Great Basin, and an
upper high remains over the lower MO/mid MS Valley region.

A surface high from the Midwest into the Northeast will be a primary
mitigating factor for severe weather potential, as moisture return
across the plains will be minimal as a result. Pockets of strong
instability > 1000-1500 J/kg are forecast to exist primarily over
the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley, well ahead of the western
trough. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of
MT eastward across parts of the Dakotas and MN from Friday through
at least Sunday, neither instability nor shear would appear to favor
any widespread severe potential, although isolated hail or wind
reports may occur during this time frame.

...Jewell.. 09/26/2023

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