Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 25 2023 23:14:06

AWUS01 KWNH 252314
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-260510-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1103
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252310Z - 260510Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue through the evening hours and will pose at least an
isolated threat for some flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery shows a
deep layer cyclone over southern MN which is gradually drifting
down to the southeast, and radar imagery shows broken bands of
heavy showers and thunderstorms continuing to develop and rotate
cyclonically northward around the eastern semicircle of the low
center.

A nose of MLCAPE values reaching 500 to 1000+ J/kg is still seen
pooling up across areas of northeast IA, western WI and into
southeast MN along with a weakly anomalous pool of moisture
characterized by PWs of 1 to 1.25 inches. This moisture and
instability coupled with moderately strong upper-jet
forcing/divergence and low-level frontal convergence should
maintain these broken bands of convection going through the
evening hours.

The 18Z HREF supports additional rainfall amounts locally of as
much as 2 to 4 inches heading through the late-evening hours, with
the recent HRRR guidance generally in agreement with this. These
additional totals may exceed some of the FFG values and at least
overlap with some areas that saw heavy rain over the last few
hours.

Therefore, expect at least an isolated threat for some flash
flooding or runoff concerns heading through the remainder of the
evening hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8t2M2wnVVYaoUFTvNAiyMZL9Lvj_JtF9PfSEBlw2D0LzLKp1p0ZHRWWKaen0TEBr1C8x=
cZZKBVlX3x2tGxTZwaqp7sM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45749249 45649133 44939031 43578932 42508907=20
            42098948 42019038 42559141 43689214 44359259=20
            45179295=20

=3D =3D =3D
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