Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2195
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 25 2023 17:37:16

ACUS11 KWNS 251737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251737=20
FLZ000-251900-

Mesoscale Discussion 2195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Areas affected...eastern portions of the FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251737Z - 251900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of hail or damaging gusts may accompany
the stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected
since the severe threat should remain isolated.

DISCUSSION...Ample diurnal heating is resulting in the
destabilization of a moist boundary layer, with low to mid 70s F
dewpoints prevalent across central and eastern portions of the FL
Peninsula. Continued heating will support the breaching of
convective temperatures, with scattered thunderstorms developing in
both the open warm sector and along sea-breeze boundaries.
Precipitable water values are exceeding 2 inches in many locales,
suggesting that water-loaded downdrafts may develop with the
stronger storms, supporting isolated damaging gusts. Furthermore,
modest directional shear may encourage the organization of
multicellular clusters, and a couple instances of hail may be
observed despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. Nonetheless, the
overall coverage of severe storms should be isolated, and a WW
issuance is not currently anticipated.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_2rq0HFEdWulaRbJA4yIeUM3HBQon-S8_F4ToW7ncflh6gHsixMfdg6LkMjPeL4f9ynDP5kGS=
5Gr_xYQeuyGxbVu7DQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   25808129 26668178 28758200 29238169 29298121 28918079
            26768005 26108013 25748067 25808129=20


=3D =3D =3D
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