Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 25 2023 08:52:21

ACUS48 KWNS 250852
SWOD48
SPC AC 250851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
eastern U.S. on Thursday and Friday. During that time, southwesterly
mid-level flow is forecast to develop across the north-central U.S,
with low-level moisture returning northward into the northern
Plains. Although large-scale ascent will not be that strong,
low-level flow is forecast to increase Friday and Friday night as a
Great Plains jet near 850 mb strengthens. Lift associated with the
jet could be favorable for elevated thunderstorm development across
parts of the northern Plains, with the greatest convective coverage
overnight on Friday. The potential for thunderstorms may continue on
Saturday across the northern Plains, as moisture return continues
and the airmass destabilizes. An isolated severe threat could
accompany the stronger storms Saturday afternoon and evening.

....Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
An upper-level low is forecast to develop across the western U.S. on
Sunday, as an upper-level ridge moves across the north-central U.S.
Near and to the west of the ridge, a pocket of moderate instability
is forecast to remain over parts of the northern Plains. Scattered
thunderstorms will continue to be possible across this moist and
unstable airmass from Sunday into Monday. An isolated severe threat
could develop each afternoon. However, predictability is low
concerning any potential scenario.

...Broyles.. 09/25/2023

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