Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 24 2023 20:01:18 ACUS01 KWNS 242001 SWODY1 SPC AC 241959 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Severe hail and damaging gusts are expected later this afternoon and evening across central/northeast Texas and possibly far southern Oklahoma and the Arklatex vicinity. ....20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Supercell development remains possible later this afternoon into this evening from central TX into the ArkLaTex region, with some clustering of storms possible tonight. Very large hail and severe/damaging gusts will be the primary threats. The greatest relative threat may become centered over northeast TX, to the east of a surface low. Some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH in this region may support the threat of a tornado as well. See the previous discussion below and MCD 2192 for more information. ...Dean.. 09/24/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023/ ....Central Texas to southeast Oklahoma/ArkLaTex... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, potentially very large (2+ inch in some cases), and damaging winds are expected mainly late this afternoon and much of the evening especially across parts of central to north/northeast Texas, and possibly nearby parts of southern Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. Water vapor imagery continues to feature an eastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max over the southern High Plains late this morning, with these features expected to reach the region (north Texas/ArkLaTex) by late afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a northeast/southwest-oriented front will settle southward across the region, with augmenting outflow/differential heating influences across the ArkLaTex. Ample warm-sector heating is anticipated under cloud-free skies early today, where plentiful upper 60s to middle 70s F surface dewpoints currently reside. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development is expected as early as late afternoon near the front/surface low and possibly also influenced by aforementioned residual outflow/differential heating and pre-frontal convergence. Upwards of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in the presence of moderate-caliber effective shear (generally 30-40 kt effective) will support some initial supercells cable of large hail, with some potentially significant in excess of 2 inches in diameter. A low-probability tornado risk may also exist in areas such as northeast Texas, where 1-3 km AGL winds will be a bit stronger to the east of the surface wave across north Texas. Storms are likely to cluster/grow upscale across the warm sector this evening, with damaging winds and some hail risk continuing, while other storms may develop tonight as far north as far southern Oklahoma/north Texas and ArkLaTex as a low-level jet and related warm advection increase. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .