Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 24 2023 17:22:19

ACUS02 KWNS 241722
SWODY2
SPC AC 241720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX
TRANS-PECOS REGION EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible
across parts of Texas on Monday.

....Parts of TX into southern LA...
Convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning across parts of
central TX into the upper TX Coast, though the coverage and
intensity of the early-day storms remains uncertain. The Sunday
night into Monday morning convection will influence the position of
a cold front that will likely become draped somewhere from southwest
TX into central TX and the mid/upper TX Coast by Monday afternoon.
Diurnal heating and favorable low-level moisture will support
moderate to locally strong buoyancy near/south of the front, and
also within a post-frontal regime across the TX Trans-Pecos region.

Large-scale ascent will largely remain weak across the region, but
isolated to widely scattered diurnal thunderstorm development will
be possible within a weakly capped environment near the front, and
also across the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos. Modest midlevel
northwesterly flow will support effective shear generally in the
20-30 kt range, sufficient for a few semi-organized cells/clusters
during the afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms, with some hail potential also
evident from the Trans-Pecos into Edwards Plateau vicinity, where
somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates are expected compared to areas
farther east.

...Dean.. 09/24/2023

$$

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