Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 24 2023 08:49:30

ACUS48 KWNS 240849
SWOD48
SPC AC 240847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
From Wednesday to Friday, an upper-level low is forecast to move
northeastward across the Great Lakes region, as an upper-level ridge
moves through the north-central U.S. At the surface, high pressure
will likely remain in place across the eastern third of the nation.
Weak instability is forecast to develop along and near an
upper-level trough in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday
and Thursday, where scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible.

Further west, across the northern Plains, southwest mid-level flow
is forecast to develop on Thursday and Friday. In response,
low-level moisture will likely return northward into the northern
Plains, where a pocket of moderate instability could potentially
develop by Friday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms,
along with a marginal severe threat, would be possible Friday or
Friday night as destabilization occurs and low-level flow increases.

....Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
From Saturday into Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
into the western U.S. as mid-level flow becomes more
south-southwesterly across the north-central U.S. Model forecasts
suggest that a pocket of moderate instability will be in place
across the Dakotas on Saturday, and to a lesser extent on Sunday as
well. Although large-scale ascent will probably be weak across the
region over the weekend, isolated to scattered thunderstorms could
still develop, especially if a boundary moves through the region, as
is suggested by some solutions. A severe threat would be possible,
especially on Saturday afternoon and evening when instability is
forecast to be maximized. At this time, predictability is low
concerning any potential scenario.

...Broyles.. 09/24/2023

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