Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 24 2023 07:30:14

ACUS03 KWNS 240730
SWODY3
SPC AC 240729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PECOS VALLEY TO BIG BEND...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with strong winds and hail, will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and
Pecos Valley to Big Bend.

....Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level low is forecast to move southeastward across Iowa on
Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward into northern Missouri
and western Illinois. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints around
60 F along with surface heating will result in weak destabilization
across much of the mid Mississippi Valley by afternoon. A small
pocket of moderate instability could develop by late afternoon, most
likely in Missouri. Scattered convection is expected to initiate
ahead of the upper-level low and near the front, with storms moving
southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Forecast soundings
near St. Louis at 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg, with 0-6
km shear around 30 knots, and 500 mb temperatures around -14C. This
could be enough for hail with the stronger cores. A few strong gusts
may also occur.

....West Texas/Eastern New Mexico...
Northwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast on Tuesday across much
of the Rockies and southern Plains. At the surface, an axis of
maximized low-level moisture is forecast from southwest Texas
extending northwestward into southeast New Mexico. Surface dewpoints
near this axis will likely be in the lower 60s F, possibly yielding
moderate instability by afternoon as surface temperatures warm. In
spite of the lack of large-scale ascent, isolated thunderstorms
appear likely to develop in the higher terrain. This convection will
move into the lower elevations during the late afternoon. Steep
low-level lapse rates, along with modest deep-layer shear may be
enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusts will be
the primary hazards.

...Broyles.. 09/24/2023

$$

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