Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2191
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 24 2023 06:15:46

ACUS11 KWNS 240615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240614=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-240815-

Mesoscale Discussion 2191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma into parts of the Ark-La-Tex

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 694...

Valid 240614Z - 240815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 694
continues.

SUMMARY...Strongest storms currently overspreading the McAlester
vicinity may pose a continuing risk for severe hail and wind another
couple of hours.  Toward 3-5 AM CDT, however, this activity and
other lingering storms probably will tend to weaken.

DISCUSSION...Strongest lingering convection has become focused
within the area of strongest low-level warm advection, near the nose
of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet.  It appears that this regime
will only slowly shift east-southeastward during the next few hours,
with a gradual veering of the low-level jet.  At the same time,
however, warming in the 850-700 mb layer, associated with
east-southeastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer plume, is
forecast to continue overspreading the remainder of eastern Oklahoma
and may increasingly inhibit further convective development.  The
ongoing vigorous convection may tend to spread southeastward toward
the Ark-La-Tex through 08-10Z, within modest (20-30 kt)
west-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow.  As it does, though, it
appears that it will become increasingly removed from the more
unstable inflow and weaken.

...Kerr.. 09/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8HnsspMPwJVrIGsPoBjO7Mm621NgKJ3LRM1Pq-zB0r6eZozNENuXd6obPm0XJw5cnt6pHPj_L=
GLwOhO4gDC1rNF5J7Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35429628 35149475 32969372 33199547 34449640 35429628=20


=3D =3D =3D
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