Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 24 2023 05:37:15

ACUS02 KWNS 240537
SWODY2
SPC AC 240535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe winds and hail,
will be possible on Monday in parts of the southern Plains.

....Southern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southeast on
Monday, as mid level northwesterly flow remains in place across much
of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will move
southward into western, central and southeast Texas by afternoon. As
surface temperatures warm, moderate to strong instability is
forecast to develop near and to the south of the front, where
surface dewpoints will likely be in the upper 60s F and lower 70s F.
Large-scale ascent will be limited, and low-level convergence will
remain weak near the front. In spite of this, strong surface heating
will allow for isolated convective initiation during the late
afternoon in areas that destabilize the most. In addition to the
instability, 0-6 km shear is generally forecast to be in the 25 to
35 knot range, with 700-600 mb lapse rates near 6.5 to 7 C/km.
Although lapse rates appear marginal, the amount of shear and
instability could support hail with the stronger cells. In addition,
forecast soundings have a dry adiabatic temperature profile below
800 mb with an LCL height around 4500 feet above ground level. This
will create high storm bases, but could also support a marginal
wind-damage threat due to increased downdraft acceleration.

...Broyles.. 09/24/2023

$$

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