Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 24 2023 05:25:42 ACUS01 KWNS 240525 SWODY1 SPC AC 240524 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing large hail and wind damage will be possible today into this evening from parts of southern Oklahoma and the Arklatex vicinity into central Texas. ....Southern OK into Central TX and the Arklatex Vicinity... A deamplifying shortwave midlevel trough will migrate across the southern Plains today. This will bring a belt of 30-45 kt 700-500 mb west/northwest flow across the region. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will extend from central IA into central OK and northwest TX this morning. The northern portions of the front will progress eastward across the Mid-MS Valley. Southern portions of the front will sag more slowly southward into central TX through evening. Near and south of the front, a moist boundary layer with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F is already in place. Ongoing convection early this morning, associated with a southward-developing thunderstorm complex over eastern OK as of 06z, will result in some uncertainty regarding severe potential later this afternoon. Morning convection may produce large hail and gusty winds before gradually weakening with southward extent across the east TX vicinity. Forecast guidance suggests some modest inhibition may persist through peak heating the Red River vicinity into north/central/east TX due to morning convection and associated cloud cover and outflow. Despite concerns over lingering inhibition, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region atop the moist boundary layer, and MLCAPE values from 1500-3000 J/kg are expected. While low-level flow (through around 3 km) will remain somewhat weak, increasing west/northwesterly winds above 700 mb will contribute to effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt. Modestly curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated above 3 km, suggest initial supercells will be possible. Given wind profiles and steep midlevel lapse rates, large to very large hail may accompany initial discrete cells. Where stronger heating occurs, deep boundary-layer mixing and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow gusts as well. With time, some upscale development/clustering via outflow interactions and mergers is possible. ...Leitman/Moore.. 09/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .