Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2190
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 24 2023 02:45:43

ACUS11 KWNS 240245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240244=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-240415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Areas affected...far southeastern Kansas...southwestern
Missouri...central and eastern Oklahoma...and western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 692...693...

Valid 240244Z - 240415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 692, 693
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe-weather risk continues, and will likely continue
locally beyond the scheduled expiration times of WW 692 and 693 (04Z
and 05Z respectively).  New/downstream WW issuance may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar loop shows strong/locally severe storms
ongoing from southeastern Kansas/southwestern Missouri southwestward
into central and eastern Oklahoma, along and ahead of an advancing
cold front.  The storms are persisting within a area of pronounced
instability (2000 to 3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and are being
assisted by a steady increase in the southwesterly low-level jet
observed over the past couple of hours.

An overall, gradual decrease in storm intensity has been generally
observed recently.  Still, it appears that some severe risk --
primarily in the form of 1" to 1 3/4" hail, and wind gusts locally
in excess of 50 to 55 kt, will likely continue through/after
midnight, spreading into western Arkansas with time.  As this
occurs, new WW issuance may be required downstream, along with
possible need for local extensions in time/area of existing watches.

...Goss.. 09/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8IVDVJB2O7Udjp1OT9WcvW5oLXieQJWOBzOIQXvJsDxVgrbIKmX9Y_Vxbqv1ywCQV_IomwEr6=
17lyVAzMZYvZ0d_W4I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   34659768 35899726 37699509 38109355 37299227 34659237
            33279295 34249671 34659768=20


=3D =3D =3D
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