Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 24 2023 00:49:46

ACUS01 KWNS 240049
SWODY1
SPC AC 240048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
THROUGH LATE EVENING...

....SUMMARY...
Large to very large hail, wind damage and a couple tornadoes remain
possible this evening from eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri.

....Eastern OK into southwest MO...

The bulk of the severe risk will be focused on ongoing convection
ahead of a cold front from southwest MO into eastern OK the next
several hours. Large to very large hail and severe gusts will be the
main hazards with this activity. However, latest VWP from KINX shows
vertical wind profiles supporting supercells, with enlarged,
favorably curved low-level hodographs. A couple of tornadoes will
remain possible the next few hours before potential diminishes
toward midnight local time.

....Northern MO into MN...

Rounds of thunderstorms through the day have largely limited greater
destabilization/airmass recovery. While some modest instability and
moderate vertical shear remain over the region, poor thermodynamics
will likely limit severe potential the remainder of the
evening/overnight. A couple of strong storms may still develop ahead
of the cold front from IA northward, posing a risk for gusty winds
and marginal hail.

.... Mid-Atlantic...

The Marginal risk has been removed as the severe threat has
diminished this evening, and any better overlap of favorable
thermodynamics/kinematics will remain offshore.

...Leitman.. 09/24/2023

$$

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