Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2189
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 23 2023 23:38:42

ACUS11 KWNS 232338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232338=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-240145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Areas affected...central and western Missouri...southeastern
Kansas...and northeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690...692...693...

Valid 232338Z - 240145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690, 692,
693 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe-weather potential continues from northern Missouri
to eastern Oklahoma this evening, where very large hail and damaging
wind gusts remain possible locally.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of strong/locally severe storms continue to
develop/evolve, per latest radar loop, ahead of an advancing cold
front, near a pre-frontal trough/dryline.  The storms are situated
within a strongly unstable airmass (2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer
CAPE), aided by a very moist boundary layer (upper 60s to low 70s
surface dewpoints) beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates.=20=20

Shear (around 40 kt sfc-6km) remains sufficient for mid-level
updraft rotation, with a mix of multicell clusters and supercell
modes observed.  Along with potential for very large hail in the
shorter term, locally damaging wind gusts will remain possible for
the next several hours.  Additionally, as a 40-plus kt southwesterly
low-level jet evolves this evening, storms will likely spread
eastward out of the existing watches across the Ozarks region, which
could require consideration for downstream WW issuance later this
evening.

...Goss.. 09/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6w781nW_qnL0jCFXEvpDTHnuLhnprJqg-BlSjX-Djo0bUa2nBDeKQ_e7602S4AjMgRUTATSGV=
zhXVOiO22S3C5MuI7g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
OUN...

LAT...LON   34929719 35249747 36419725 38229552 39179454 39969399
            39929248 38039191 34669272 34499462 34929719=20


=3D =3D =3D
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