Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 23 2023 23:27:45 AWUS01 KWNH 232327 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-240525- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1097 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 725 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Areas affected...Much of Central to Southwest MO...Southeast KS...Eastern OK...Northwest AR Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 232325Z - 240525Z SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing and expanding in coverage heading into the evening hours. High rainfall rates and some training cells will likely drive scattered instances of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a few clusters of cold-topped convection evolving across areas of western and northern MO, and also separately down to the south across areas of eastern OK. The convection over the next few hours will be developing further and expanding in coverage as warm air advection continues out ahead of a rather strong mid-level trough/closed low over the northern Plains. Robust mid-level westerly flow undercutting the southern flank of the height falls is already favoring rather strong shear profiles with effective bulk shear values of as much as 40 to 50 kts. This coupled with a nose of strong instability ahead of a cold front with MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg will yield an environment conducive for upscale convective growth heading into the evening hours. The greatest instability is over eastern OK and southeast KS, and this is being aided by a moist southerly low-level jet of near 30 kts. The ongoing convection over areas of western and northern MO are tied into the nose of this stronger warm air advection and instability transport and with aid of some weak embedded vort energy in the stronger mid-level flow. However, expect convection in the relative near-term to begin focusing increasingly into areas of central to southwest MO, and possibly far southeast KS as additional convective clusters expand over eastern OK. PWs are running locally as high as 2 standard deviations above normal, and already this pooling of moisture in conjunction with the instability has resulted in rainfall rates approaching 2.5 inches/hour with some of the cells over western MO. The 12Z/18Z HREF solutions favor these rates continuing into the evening hours with the stronger cells and especially with expectation of the low-level jet increasing a bit more in strength. Strong and organized clusters of convection should evolve by mid to late evening, and with concerns for back-building and localized training of cells, some rainfall totals are expected to reach as high as 3 to 5 inches by midnight. This is likely to drive at least scattered instances of flash flooding. Can't rule out some locally significant impacts as well where these heavier totals set up. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_CKXT7m7vputUmJzxmuPjEywiDqK8ufO-fHn0LZg_q1PccqdaWF6SJ2O9BUH8v9zAang= Zda08_zlQtWBSED9gAneqsA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39929226 39539177 38539179 36239310 35179395=20 34679466 34609549 34819610 35259652 36059648=20 37449571 39039452 39909332=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .