Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 23 2023 18:23:39 AWUS01 KWNH 231823 FFGMPD DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-240030- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1096 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 222 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Areas affected...northern North Carolina, central/eastern Virginia, southern Maryland, southern Delaware, and the District of Columbia Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 231822Z - 240030Z Summary...Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to promote considerable flash flood potential across the discussion area this afternoon. Discussion...The center of Ophelia continues to move northward across eastern North Carolina and was located near the NC/VA border southwest of Norfolk. Bands of heavy precipitation have continued to produce areas of 1+ inch/hr rain rates over multiple hours both near the center (near Roanoke Rapids) and also west-through-southwest of the center near Raleigh metro. The bulk of flash flood potential has been located with this activity.=20 Meanwhile, scattered convection has progressed fairly quickly across the DelMarVa that has managed to produce spots of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain rates while wetting soils downstream of Ophelia. The overall flash flood scenario with Ophelia continues and remains separated into these two separate regimes: 1) with concentrated/banded convection near the center and just west of the storm and 2) with banded convection forming in a slightly more buoyant airmass northeastward toward the DelMarVa. So far, the more concentrated flash flood threat has evolved over North Carolina (with at least one report of closed roadways near Greenville). Prolonged heavy rainfall in these areas have resulted in 2-7 inches storm total precipitation and wet soils supporting efficient runoff. Flash flooding remains likely in this scenario, and the better risk should continue to spread northward toward the I-95 corridor in eastern Virginia (including Richmond Metro) through 00Z. Farther to the northeast (from far southeastern Virginia northeastward to the DelMarVa), lighter rain rates have generally materialized despite notable banding of convection. Rain has generally remained fairly progressive, although the presence of strong low-level convergence and buoyancy in these areas may still promote isolated flash flood potential especially if convective bands stall and manage to produce higher rain rates through 00Z. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7P4SOo-W_lmdmhJFtQxMVd3NhDu78XsXqUj0-4Ixu6kqUYDAyrrXK70V21fd0RNiunEG= raIzxP51bbopDMzL6pchW7c$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MHX...PHI...RAH...RNK... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39147575 38877510 37797505 36717569 35827644=20 35067760 35217870 35607890 36487900 37637899=20 38897746 39097665=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .