Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 23 2023 12:59:33 AWUS01 KWNH 231259 FFGMPD DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-231900- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1095 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 858 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, southern Maryland, portions of Delaware Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 231257Z - 231900Z Summary...Tropical Storm Ophelia will continue to spread areas of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates across the discussion area through 19Z and beyond. Flash flooding remains likely during that timeframe. Discussion...Widespread rainfall continues around the periphery of Ophelia, which was recently centered near EWN/New Bern. Recent radar/MRMS shows the heaviest rainfall located near the center from New Bern to Greenville, where 1-3 inch/hr rain rates were noted. 2-6 inch rainfall amounts fell yesterday across most of eastern North Carolina, which has lowered FFGs to less than 1 inch/hr thresholds in several areas due to wet soils. With those thresholds being readily exceeded (and more than doubled in local areas), flash flooding remains likely near Ophelia's center in the short term. A couple of regimes should continue to support flash flooding through at least 19Z this afternoon. The first: flash flooding should remain likely near the center of Ophelia as long as the storm can maintain intense convection near its center while tracking northward toward the NC/VA border region. Multiple hours of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates should continue from Greenville northward to Roanoke Rapids and eventually Richmond, VA along and near the path of Ophelia's center, which should readily promote excessive runoff and perhaps locally significant impacts. The second regime of potential flash flooding should unfold east of the track of Ophelia this morning. SPC Mesoanalyses indicate sufficient surface-based buoyancy for deep convection, while dry air aloft should enable development of convective bands that repeat over localized areas and result in prolonged 1-3 inch/hr rain rates. There is some potential that these bands materialize over populated and sensitive areas in southeastern Virginia, while CAMs also suggest eventual development of convective bands into southeastern Maryland and Delaware beginning after 15Z. The development of convection in these areas will be largely tied to inland development of instability, and areas of insolation will likely enhance convective potential through the afternoon. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6v2R0GyL70hCmq35wYE6MeiGNmvtcLtX0H4j4s_iamxSlBrsUZDS466ea0lDk25FiYlL= Vlp74VD6pXfRWNyLJK6dYGk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MHX...PHI...RAH... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39087545 38817501 37437528 36047571 35057642=20 34657714 34637754 35227817 36797814 37847763=20 38647655=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .