Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2179
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 23 2023 12:23:08

ACUS11 KWNS 231223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231222=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-231445-

Mesoscale Discussion 2179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Areas affected...parts of northeastern North Carolina and
southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231222Z - 231445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be accompanied by
some risk for a brief tornado through the 10 am- Noon time frame
across areas near and south of the Hampton Roads vicinity.  It is
not clear that a tornado watch is needed, but trends will continue
to be monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Ophelia continues a slow north-northwestward migration,
to the north of the Morehead City vicinity.  Low-level hodographs
are enlarged and clockwise curved to the northeast of its center,
but with near-surface flow initially northerly and only gradually
veering to an easterly component within this regime, the tropically
moist boundary layer has largely remained offshore.=20=20

Weak boundary-layer destabilization has been supported by surface
dew point increases into the lower 70s F, but this has been confined
to a small portion of the northeastern North Carolina into
southeastern Virginia coastal plain.  Little substantive change
appears likely into midday, but convection has been increasing in a
broken band pivoting inland around the northeastern periphery of
Ophelia, toward the Hampton Roads vicinity of southeastern Virginia.
Given the presence of an environment marginally supportive of modest
low-level mesocyclone strengthening within the short-lived stronger
convection, a brief tornado may not be out of the question through
14-16Z.

...Kerr/Edwards.. 09/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8Oh5trIXsGFfr8hbY-dKuFDAGuNPhzvJDf2xe51CB-ydcOzEPFRMaiMXNhO2Ha0SuXaxJGEKy=
_jAeAKugmODr_a6-ZY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

LAT...LON   37157654 37257604 36277581 36477626 36297677 37157654=20


=3D =3D =3D
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