Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2178
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 23 2023 07:27:37

ACUS11 KWNS 230727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230727=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-231000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2178
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Areas affected...parts of western through central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 230727Z - 231000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development appears probable
within the next couple of hours, with the evolution of an organizing
cluster possible through 5-7 AM CDT.  Stronger storms may be
accompanied by a risk for severe hail, at least initially.  The risk
for severe surface gusts currently appears low, but trends will be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Beneath the leading (northern) edge of a plume of warm
and capping elevated mixed-layer air advecting across the central
Great Plains, lower level warming and moistening is contributing to
substantive destabilization across southwestern through central
Nebraska.  CAPE for most unstable parcels, within a saturating
environment rooted above a more stable near-surface layer, now
appears to be increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg, as an upstream
mid-level low gradually shifts across and east of the northern
Rockies.

Mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, within the exit region of
a mid-level jet streak (50-60 kt around 500 mb) propagating
east-northeast of the Colorado Rockies, is forecast to overspread
much of western through central Nebraska and adjacent portions of
South Dakota by 09-12Z.  As it does, it will likely overcome the
inhibition and support increasing convective development.  Given the
potential instability, and strong shear within the cloud-bearing
layer, this probably will include convection capable of producing
severe hail, at least initially.  Aided by lift associated with the
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, an organizing cluster may
gradually develop through daybreak.  This could eventually be
accompanied by a developing MCV and strengthening rear inflow toward
daybreak.  However, even if this occurs, the potential for damaging
gusts to reach the surface current appears low, due to the stable
near-surface layer.

...Kerr/Edwards.. 09/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ZPA5g7pONwIv4JNZkIwvvslPUfKUQJlOcJnLxCj5zxS-MYGcMwewu-sHYbNPlQpEIrveKYXo=
JvGeZybjkjicCxiuGQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42680158 43580048 42729849 40549931 40700131 42050164
            42680158=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.