Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 23 2023 01:32:49 AWUS01 KWNH 230132 FFGMPD NCZ000-230730- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1092 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 932 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 230130Z - 230730Z SUMMARY...Increasing heavy rainfall intensity is expected to impact portions of eastern NC over the next 6 hours with the possibility of flash flooding developing. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are expected at times along with additional 6-hr totals of 2-5 inches. DISCUSSION...While there have been oscillations in cloud top temperature, GOES East 10.3 micron imagery has shown a fairly steady state of deep convection 45-90 miles southeast of Cape Fear since 21Z, with a slow northwestward drift, associated with T.S. Ophelia. The 00Z advisory from NHC showed the center of Ophelia was located at 33.3N 76.6W, or ~45 miles northeast of the coldest cloud tops, tracking toward the NNW at 10 kt. Water vapor and LPW imagery showed a pronounced mid-upper level dry intrusion located east of the circulation and radar/satellite imagery implied a majority of rainfall was occurring within the western semi-circle of the low to mid-level circulation. Moderate to steady rain has been ongoing for much of the past 12 hours over eastern NC, with storm total reports of 3-6 inches in the vicinity of Cape Lookout and the Crystal Coast, with roughly 3 inches falling within the past 6 hours, but with hourly totals only occasionally peaking in the 0.5 to 0.75 in/hr range. Axes of low level convergence axis were located west and southwest of Ophelia's center, supporting some of the highest rainfall intensities with KLTX showing hourly totals of 1.0-1.3 inches at 0040Z, although its location is still a bit too far offshore to get an accurate representation based on radar. As Ophelia continues to advance toward the coast, it is estimated that the heaviest rain will come ashore between Cape Fear and New River Inlet, remaining southwest of Ophelia's center, as instability increases from east to west. Rainfall rates are expected to peak into the 1-2 in/hr range as this occurs with periods of moderate to heavy rain also falling north into the eastern Coastal Plain of NC. While the coverage of 1+ in/hr rates may remain small, additional rainfall over the next 6 hours is expected to range between 2-5 inches with the greatest totals likely between Cape Fear, Cape Lookout and locations 25-50 miles inland. While there might be some overlap with locations having picked up the highest rainfall totals so far (Beaufort, Harkers Island and vicinity), it is expected that the next 6 hours will focus the greatest rainfall totals west of these locations. Flash flooding will be possible as a result. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5BwpkKmaV2n_o3tn5ZPI4uNPmO9z8E3YkpoKFmlUKUAY_6dxkrN6WZQOXFVSzCph6HFj= XiglfT5-oyl1UKq7xJIvTf4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35737703 35697627 35067586 34757620 34457657=20 34417703 34187745 33717782 33787813 34717811=20 35357769=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .