Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2177
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 23 2023 01:02:33

ACUS11 KWNS 230102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230102=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-230300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689...

Valid 230102Z - 230300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689
continues.

SUMMARY...A second round of strong to severe thunderstorms is
probable later this evening across southeast Wyoming into the
Nebraska Panhandle, so the severe weather threat continues.

DISCUSSION...Initial convection across southeast WY and the NE
Panhandle has waned over the past hour - likely a result of storms
exiting the corridor of better buoyancy and the onset of nocturnal
stabilization - with no clear immediate severe threats. However,
latest RAP mesoanalysis continues to depict a reservoir of 1000-2000
J/kg MUCAPE across this region. To the west across central WY, GOES
IR imagery has shown clear signals of broad-scale ascent over the
past few hours as the main upper trough (and the attendant mid-level
jet max) translate east. Additional thunderstorm develop appears
probable across central to southeast WY in the coming hours as this
ascent overspreads the MUCAPE reservoir. The approach of the
mid-level jet will maintain elongated hodographs through the
effective inflow-EL layer that should support supercells with an
attendant large (to perhaps very large) hail risk. While the exact
timing of this second round is uncertain, the severe risk should
continue and warrants maintaining portions of WW 689 and/or a new
watch in the coming hours.

...Moore.. 09/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5BbI7z5yosQNNWZi9mCEsin1C_MLpwXQM1hzafCsLRuSkP2I-D9ZHOX3BX61Nqs5tswkQbpGV=
16l7r6z6yOrGx7KMhs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41030436 41290468 41890486 42540481 42850456 42960405
            42970267 42760230 42150210 41430214 41080241 40990279
            40990395 41030436=20


=3D =3D =3D
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