Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 23 2023 00:52:03

ACUS01 KWNS 230051
SWODY1
SPC AC 230050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER
REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the northern
High Plains this evening. A few tornadoes are also possible over the
coastal southern Mid-Atlantic/Tidewater region overnight into
tomorrow morning.

....01z Update...

Strong upper low has advanced into western WY early this evening.
Large-scale ascent is spreading downstream and is currently
reflected in a corridor of weak convection that extends from near
RKS, arcing across CPR to near SHR. Boundary-layer flow remains
decidedly easterly across much of the lower elevations of eastern WY
with surface temperatures holding in the 60s to near 70F over the
southeastern part of the state. Given the very cold temperatures
aloft, a corridor of buoyancy persists from the NE Panhandle into
this portion of WY. While earlier supercell activity has spread into
the NE Panhandle and weakened, latest thinking is additional
strong/severe thunderstorm development is possible over the next few
hours as the aforementioned large-scale ascent spreads across
eastern WY. Wind profiles continue to favor supercell development
and large hail is expected with the most robust activity.
Additionally, some tornado risk continues given the relatively low
LCLs and favorable shear.

TS Ophelia continues its northerly track toward the NC Coast. Wind
profiles are strengthening across the southern Middle
Atlantic/Tidewater region which will support some organizational
threat with convection as it rotates inland, well northeast of
expected landfall. Latest radar data suggests some weak rotation is
evident in some of the stronger showers offshore. Tornado risk will
gradually increase later tonight as shear continues to increase.

...Darrow.. 09/23/2023

$$

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