Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2174
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 22 2023 18:18:59

ACUS11 KWNS 221818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221818=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-222015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2174
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Areas affected...Eastern WY into southwest SD and the NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221818Z - 222015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to increase
with time this afternoon. Eventual watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of morning convection, partial clearing and
diurnal heating has aided in modest destabilization across parts of
eastern WY into the NE Panhandle, with MLCAPE increasing into the
500-1000 J/kg range. Thunderstorm development has recently been
noted across east-central WY, and a general increase in storm
coverage and intensity is expected through the afternoon.=20

As midlevel flow gradually veers and increases in advance of a
mid/upper-level low near the UT/ID border, wind profiles will become
increasingly favorable for organized storms, and a couple of
supercells may evolve with time. Steep midlevel lapse rates and cool
temperatures aloft will support large hail of 1.5 to 2 inches in
diameter, conditional on supercell development. A tornado or two
will also be possible if multiple sustained supercells can develop.
In order to address these threats, watch issuance is possible later
this afternoon.

...Dean/Guyer.. 09/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_CR2dxxPs-aSEhVZomRMXu69_olRjsa_3S_ucgy0CuKyfIQg8iUSuGKnV0dUc4JzykBJUtc_e=
eWcPkljpCcsiDq9vbc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   43980684 44600619 44470369 44010294 43130256 41850309
            41420325 41470430 42190538 42590627 42810633 43980684=20


=3D =3D =3D
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