Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 22 2023 08:53:59

ACUS48 KWNS 220853
SWOD48
SPC AC 220852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley on Monday and into the southern Appalachians on
Tuesday. By Wednesday, a trough is forecast to develop over the mid
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
southward into the western Gulf Coast region on Monday, stalling or
moving slowly on Tuesday across the Texas Coastal Plain into
southern Louisiana. Thunderstorms will be possible along and south
of the front each day as surface temperatures warm. An isolated
severe threat may develop on Monday afternoon from parts of
south-central Texas eastward to near the coast of Louisiana.
However, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain rather weak
suggesting any severe threat will be marginal.

....Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
On Thursday and Friday, an upper-level low is forecast to move
eastward from the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the upper-level low
each day, in the southern Appalachians and Carolinas on Thursday,
and in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Although an isolated severe
threat would be possible each afternoon in areas that warm the most,
deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, suggesting any
severe threat would be marginal.

...Broyles.. 09/22/2023

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