Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Sep 22 2023 01:15:28 AWUS01 KWNH 220115 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-220710- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1090 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 914 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Areas affected...eastern KS and southwestern MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 220111Z - 220710Z SUMMARY...Heavy rain with embedded rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr is expected to continue a flash flood threat for portions of eastern KS and southwestern MO through 07Z. Storm total rainfall of 3-5 inches will be possible, although coverage of these higher totals should be isolated which should limit the flash flood threat. DISCUSSION...A small convective cluster was noted on radar and infrared satellite imagery over eastern KS at 0040Z, with a general progression and expansion toward the east noted over the past hour. Thunderstorms were located north of a quasi-stationary front that extended from eastern KS into south-central MO, located at the nose of a relative max in surface to 850 mb precipitable water values (via CIRA LPW imagery) extending from eastern OK into eastern KS. While 850 mb winds were stronger over west-central KS, 15-20 kt from the south or southeast was observed in recent VAD wind plots from KEAX, KSGF and KINX, supporting overrunning of the front where steep (7.2-7.3 C/km) 700-500 mb lapse rates were supporting somewhere between 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE via the 00Z soundings from TOP and SGF. A general east or east-southeastward progression of the cluster of thunderstorms is expected over the next 1-3 hours, following lift out ahead of an ill-defined shortwave trough crossing the central Plains. Beyond that time frame, continued congealing of thunderstorms will probably support a southeastward turn via forecast Corfidi vectors which suggest the complex of convection will begin to approach portions of southwestern MO by 05-07Z. Current thinking is that the heaviest rain will stay east of the 2 to 4+ inches which fell over southwestern MO within the past 48 hours. However, localized rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr will be possible over the next 1-3 hours over far eastern KS into western MO, followed by a threat for 1-2 in/hr rates later in the night as forward progression likely increases. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-59YjYUvZrfMVgu0DMyvew-Qi7qhK3NhNzsSgEZhR_A8I2k3vSLEBX9xn8s2Bb9TJqNx= CWymcb8NzcEuOmXflbxgWHQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38739556 38699428 38469243 37819192 36819248=20 36589378 37049452 37579503 37809532 38069568=20 38319596 38529591=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .