Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2172
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 21 2023 22:19:27

ACUS11 KWNS 212219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212218=20
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas into far northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212218Z - 220015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms appear probable this evening
with an attendant risk for damaging winds and large hail. However,
this risk should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, isolated thunderstorms have
initiated across eastern KS with somewhat rapid cloud top cooling
noted in IR imagery (approximately 20 C over a 20 minute window).
Broken cloud cover through the afternoon has muted diurnal
destabilization to some degree, but seasonally rich low-level
moisture (mid 60s dewpoints) is supporting MLCAPE values upwards of
2000 J/kg. Additionally, southeasterly low-level flow under
southwesterly winds aloft is supporting effective bulk shear values
near 35 knots - sufficiently for organized cells. Although the
regional environment is supportive of supercells with an attendant
hail/wind risk, east/southeast KS is on the periphery of stronger
mesoscale and synoptic ascent to the northwest across northern KS
and NE. This casts uncertainty onto storm coverage, and slow storm
motions should limit the potential for storm interactions/upscale
growth. Consequently, this threat should remain fairly isolated, and
a watch will likely not be needed.

...Moore/Thompson.. 09/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9DIkkoAtD2KzNM05RIgbL_rwf05ueku2AJi-pkm_6md8Y81f-yoZWH7UkekbbSoGol05c1GVA=
WGLc3JKR5c16zfwVOA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37089605 37569650 38159697 38739706 38929702 39139669
            39079624 38679546 38159501 37569460 37149449 36759460
            36649505 36709542 37089605=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.