Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 21 2023 16:13:50

ACUS01 KWNS 211613
SWODY1
SPC AC 211612

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS....

....SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon into tonight across parts of the southern and central
Plains.

....Central and Southern Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough crossing
the Rockies of central CO.  This feature will move eastward and
provide weak large scale ascent across much of the central Plains
this afternoon and evening.  Morning model solutions are diverse in
placement/timing of thunderstorm activity, but generally show a
larger envelope of potential risk.  Therefore have expanded the MRGL
to include much more of the central and southern Plains.

....NE/KS...
A rather pronounced surface dryline is expected to develop later
today from western NE southward into western KS, with dewpoints in
the 60s and MLCAPE values of over 2500 J/kg to the east of the
boundary.  Given the weak forcing and some cap, the areal coverage
of convective initiation is uncertain.  However, any storm that
forms along this axis will have a conditional threat of very large
hail and a tornado or two.  These storms may persist for several
hours after dark and track eastward into parts of north central KS
and central NE.

....OK/TX...
A weak sub-tropical shortwave trough is moving into west TX.  Lift
ahead of this feature is resulting in a large region of accas and a
few showers and thunderstorms moving into southwest OK/northwest TX.
 Continued daytime heating is expected to lead to convective
intensification by late afternoon across north TX and southern OK.
The strongest cells in this area may produce hail and gusty winds
for a few hours into this evening.

....Eastern NC...
The outer bands of the strengthening tropical system off the
southeast Atlantic coast are forecast to still be well offshore by
Fri/12z.  Therefore will defer any increasing tornado risk to the
Day2 period.

...Hart/Wendt.. 09/21/2023

$$

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