Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 20 2023 16:11:12

ACUS01 KWNS 201611
SWODY1
SPC AC 201609

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN....

....SUMMARY...
Strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible across
parts of eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas and northeast Texas late
this afternoon and evening.  Gusty winds may also accompany a few
storms over the northern Great Basin.

....OK/AR/TX/LA...
A persistent nocturnal MCS is weakening over western AR, with
clearing skies over eastern OK in its wake.  Strong heating will
help yield a moderately unstable air mass by late afternoon across
southeastern OK, where there will be some chance of a thunderstorm
or two.  Effective shear values of 40-50 knots and steep mid-level
lapse rates will support a risk of large hail and damaging winds in
any persistent storm that develops.  However, weakening large scale
support and a residual cap suggest the risk of initiation is rather
low in the primary instability region.

....NV/UT/ID/WY...
A rather dynamic upper trough is digging quickly southeastward today
across the Pacific Northwest region.  This will allow large scale
ascent to overspread much of the northern Great Basin by this
afternoon.  A corridor of mid-level moisture ahead of the trough
extends from northern NV into northwest WY, and should be favorable
for the development of scattered high-based showers and
thunderstorms later today.  Skies are currently clear in this
region, allowing steep low-level lapse rates to develop.  As winds
aloft strengthen this afternoon, the potential will exist for
gusty/damaging wind gusts in a few of the fast-moving storms.

...Hart/Wendt.. 09/20/2023

$$

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