Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 20 2023 05:56:33

ACUS01 KWNS 200556
SWODY1
SPC AC 200555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with hail and marginally severe winds,
will be possible across parts of eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas
and far northeast Texas late this afternoon and evening.

....Eastern Oklahoma/Western Arkansas/Far Northeast Texas...
A shortwave trough will move slowly eastward into the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, south-southeasterly flow
will help maintain a moist airmass located from east Texas northward
into eastern Oklahoma. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper
60 F along this corridor, with moderate instability developing by
afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to
scattered convective initiation is expected across part of this
airmass. The greatest convective coverage is expected from eastern
Oklahoma into western Arkansas, where low-level flow is forecast to
be maximized. RAP forecast soundings in eastern Oklahoma around
00Z/Thu show moderate deep-layer shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 8 C/km. This will likely support an isolated severe threat with
rotating storms possible. Hail and marginally severe gusts will be
the primary threats. At this time, the stronger forcing with the
shortwave trough and strongest instability appear to be dislocated
from one another, with the shortwave trough well toward the east.
This, combined with the potential for a very small maximized threat
area, will drive the decision to maintain a marginal risk for this
outlook cycle.

...Broyles/Bentley.. 09/20/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.