Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 20 2023 01:01:29

ACUS01 KWNS 200101
SWODY1
SPC AC 200059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST AND NORTH TEXAS...INTO OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with large hail (possibly greater than two
inches in diameter) and wind damage, will be likely from parts of
west and north Texas, into Oklahoma this evening.

....West and North Texas/Oklahoma...
Latest water vapor imagery shows evidence of a shortwave trough over
the central High Plains. RAP analysis has several vorticity maxima,
associated with the trough, located from western Oklahoma into
western Kansas. At the surface, a 1003 mb low is analyzed over
northwest Texas, with backed southeasterly flow over much of
Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. A pocket of maximized low-level
moisture is present in this area where surface dewpoints are
generally in the 60s F. This is contributing to a north-to-south
corridor of moderate instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in
the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the
instability axis from west-central Oklahoma south-southwestward into
west-central Texas. Isolated storms are also located in
south-central Kansas. MCS development will be likely this evening as
the storms move east-southeastward across the southern Plains.

In addition to moderate instability, shear profiles across much of
the southern Plains appear favorable for severe storms. The 00Z
sounding from Norman, Oklahoma has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots with
strong directional shear from the surface to 700 mb. In addition,
700-500 mb lapse rates are near 8.5 C/km. This moderate deep-layer
shear, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates, will support
supercells with large hail this evening. Hailstones of greater than
two inches in diameter will be possible with the most intense
updrafts, mainly across southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. A
wind-damage threat will also be likely with supercells, and with
organized multicells. The severe threat is expected to continue
through much of the evening.

...Broyles.. 09/20/2023

$$

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