Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2164
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 19 2023 22:56:00

ACUS11 KWNS 192255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192255=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-200030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Areas affected...Northwest Texas and western Oklahoma.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686...

Valid 192255Z - 200030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686
continues.

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage and intensity of severe thunderstorms
is expected through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Showers which developed across the Texas Panhandle have
intensified into supercells over the last hour as they moved into
increasing instability (1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Effective shear of 40 to
45 knots per FDR VWP will continue to maintain the supercell threat
through the evening. The long, relatively straight hodographs
supports splitting supercells, the first of which has already
occurred along the Texas/Oklahoma border east of Childress. Given
moderate instability to the north of these ongoing storms, there may
sufficient instability to support longer lived left-moving
supercells capable of large to very large hail, particularly across
southwest Oklahoma.

...Bentley.. 09/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7LgbnR-oUwxuDdbnHYt-ZMYHlLK7v45cPhgq4yx5kMTu9osEnfa1nRMsdWImDa5yYVDu1xC-k=
-PTplvVuSaQDZyAaho$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   32900070 33680061 34800021 35779936 36029885 36059816
            35919752 34969739 33669768 32809812 32579908 32900070=20


=3D =3D =3D
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