Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2163 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Sep 19 2023 22:21:00 ACUS11 KWNS 192220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192220=20 TXZ000-192345- Mesoscale Discussion 2163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Areas affected...north-central Texas. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686... Valid 192220Z - 192345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686 continues. SUMMARY...A supercell across north-central Texas could pose a large hail threat this evening. DISCUSSION...A supercell formed on the western periphery of mid-day elevated convection which moved east across north-central Texas. Given only weak CINH near this storm and its radar depiction over the last hour, this storm has likely rooted and is surface based in a region with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 40+ knots of mid-level northwesterly flow (per FWD VWP) has yielded near 50 knots of effective shear. This environment will support supercells capable of large hail (potentially 2+ inches). If this storm continues to turn right, which it has started to do over the last 15 to 30 minutes, portions of at least the northern DFW metro area may be impacted by large to very large hail this evening.=20 If this storm continues to maintain its current intensity or strengthen, an expansion of watch 686 may be needed. ...Bentley/Bunting.. 09/19/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-FEzNLhw2cV5Jxab_6lz8sJjYmwjd02NWoIMFSBRhavd_sOBbiJ2TDIJAbbPYsxDX82t2mcIc= HiZ116VjNYUKn8Z1II$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 33649755 33609688 33189611 32739589 32469641 32599703 32869743 33099767 33269770 33649755=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .