Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2162
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 19 2023 20:37:28

ACUS11 KWNS 192037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192036=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-192130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Areas affected...northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 192036Z - 192130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is expected over the
next 2-3 hours. Very large hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible with these storms. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely
this afternoon or early evening, but timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating has allowed temperatures to warm into
the upper 80s/low 90s across the OK/TX Panhandles into western
OK/northwest TX. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection also has
maintained dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s while aiding in
erosion of convective inhibition. Increasing/deepening cumulus is
evident in visible satellite imagery over the TX Panhandle/South
Plains vicinity, suggesting subtle large-scale ascent is spreading
east across the region. Additional cumulus development beneath
weakening cap has also been noted over western north TX.

A zone of moderate instability (to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE)
overlapping with effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will
support organized convection, with a mix of supercells and clusters
anticipated. Forecast soundings show enlarged, curved low-level
hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km. This wind
profile, coupled with midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggest very
large hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) will be possible,
even if storms are somewhat elevated due to lingering low-level
inhibition (which increases with eastward extent and also with time
into the evening). Isolated strong gusts also will be possible. A
severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed late this afternoon
or early evening, but given subtle forcing mechanisms and lingering
inhibition, timing is a bit uncertain.

...Leitman/Hart.. 09/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!43ZSpumhZo_TiV0dqSUo2-Gns0eJrPEQU7UndrKpGTQtUUksnFvlLKuDpUNx5-SGdLdVeKPS4=
-21WnPQoKwhbfZe8vU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34540042 35010001 35249892 35429791 35369760 35089744
            34899753 34489768 33559807 33089865 32909937 33080035
            33180093 33480119 33530119 34540042=20


=3D =3D =3D
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