Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 19 2023 16:11:57

ACUS01 KWNS 191611
SWODY1
SPC AC 191610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts and large hail are possible today and
tonight across portions of the southern Plains.

....OK/North TX...
Morning water vapor imagery loop shows multiple subtle mid-level
vorticity maxima moving across the central Plains.  The primary
system is currently over southwest/south-central KS, and aided in
rather widespread convection overnight across OK/KS.  The back edge
of stronger forcing associated with this feature is over western OK,
with clear skies and southerly low-level winds back in place.  By
mid/late afternoon, strong heating will lead to a corridor of
moderate CAPE across western OK into western North TX.  A consensus
of CAMS develop scattered thunderstorms along this axis, with storms
persisting for a few hours and tracking into central OK and
north-central TX.  Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse
rates and 40-50 knots of effective shear.  This will support
supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts.  An
isolated tornado or two is also possible.

Model guidance is also consistent in developing storms in
north-central OK this afternoon, just ahead of the upper system over
KS.  This area will see less heating/destabilization than farther
south, but could also see a cluster of intense storms that move
across northeast OK.  Damaging winds and hail would be the main
threat.

...Hart/Wendt.. 09/19/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.