Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Sep 19 2023 00:47:56 ACUS01 KWNS 190047 SWODY1 SPC AC 190046 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated, marginal severe wind and hail remain possible across the Texas Panhandle vicinity the remainder of this evening. ....01z Update... Dominant upper anticyclone remains anchored over northern Mexico this evening. As a result, notable southern stream mid-level flow extends across the southwestern US into the southern Plains. Within this flow, several weak mid-level short-wave troughs are embedded from AZ/NM into the eastern TX Panhandle. The lead feature appears partly responsible for isolated thunderstorm activity across the eastern TX Panhandle. This activity is moving slowly east toward the OK/TX border but appears to be struggling to maintain intensity over the last hour or so, possibly due to cooling boundary layer. Another weak short-wave trough has topped the upper ridge over NM and scattered/isolated weak convection is noted with this disturbance across much of northern/central NM. NM short wave will approach the southern Plains later this evening which should encourage some increase in the LLJ across the TX South Plains into central KS. Resultant increasing LLJ should contribute to additional convection later this evening. While gusty winds and marginally severe hail may be noted with this convection, most thunderstorms may remain sub-severe as they spread toward western OK. ...Darrow.. 09/19/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .