Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 18 2023 12:24:21 ACUS01 KWNS 181224 SWODY1 SPC AC 181222 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TX PANHANDLE VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated, marginal severe wind and hail will be possible across the Texas Panhandle vicinity from about 5 to 9 PM CDT. ....TX Panhandle vicinity... Isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop near the dryline towards early evening as PW values gradually increase to the north-northeast from the Upper Rio Grande Valley/Trans-Pecos region. Most 00Z and early morning CAM guidance outside of the HRRR suggest that at least a couple storms may become sustained for a few hours in the eastern to southern TX Panhandle area. With low-amplitude mid-level ridging remaining prevalent across the southern High Plains, effective bulk shear will likely remain modest from 20-30 kts. Convection will likely struggle to organize beyond weak/transient structures and any marginal severe threat should be short-lived before subsiding after dusk. ....Southern MT to NM... Very isolated severe wind gusts will be possible within various dry microburst environments across a large portion of the Intermountain West to the Rockies and High Plains. Where surface temperatures can warm through the 70s to low 80s, deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles will be common. Scattered thunderstorms are most likely across eastern UT/western CO into parts of NM, with more isolated activity developing off the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT. This high-based/low-topped convection will be capable of producing sporadic strong to locally severe surface gusts. Much of this activity, aside from southern MT, will be within a weakly sheared environment, limiting potential for an organized severe wind threat across the region. ....Northwest KS to the Mid-MO Valley... A few strong storms will be possible this evening along the leading edge of weak buoyancy impinging on a surface trough over northwest KS and separately within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime across the Mid-MO Valley. Overall environmental setup appears to favor small hail and locally strong gusts as the primary threat. ...Grams/Gleason.. 09/18/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .