Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 18 2023 08:47:37

ACUS48 KWNS 180847
SWOD48
SPC AC 180845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium range guidance is in general agreement that a pronounced
mid-level trough will impinge on the Plains states and eject into
the Mid or Upper MS Valley region late this week into this weekend.
Cyclogenesis should occur over the central High Plains Days
5-6/Friday-Saturday, encouraging seasonable moisture return amid a
strong low-level jet over the central Plains. Cooling aloft with the
ejecting mid-level trough atop increasing low-level
moisture/instability over the warm sector should support some
organized severe potential over parts of the central Plains. Despite
the aforementioned general agreement in medium-range solutions,
ECMWF ensemble guidance suggests that trough ejection and associated
deep-layer ascent may not occur until late Day 5/Friday evening,
with capping remaining a concern, precluding severe probabilities
this outlook. Furthermore, uncertainty remains on the impacts of Day
5 convection on the warm sector for Day 6/Saturday over the central
Plains, with severe probabilities withheld. Should late afternoon
convective initiation become more apparent over the central Plains
Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday, severe probabilities may be introduced.
The upper trough should meander eastward across the MS Valley
region, encouraging shower/thunderstorm potential into early next
week.

...Squitieri.. 09/18/2023

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